Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 11 cents and near 15.59. SX is up 13 cents and near 14.10. SMN is near 400.7. BON is near 68.65. CN is up 1 cent and near 6.89. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.79. WN is up 5 cents and near 6.98 KWN is up 7 cents and near 6.44. MWN is up 18 cents and near 7.90.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher on talk of better demand.
USDA 10 day weather forecast is dry and warm for US north plains, upper Midwest and PNW.
US 2021 corn crop was rated 76 pct G/E vs70 expected and 67 average. NE corn rated 88 pct G/E, IL 80, IA 81, OH 79, MN 76, IN 74, SD 67, MI 63. US soybean plantings were 84 pct vs 67 average. 15 pct US soybean acres and 10 pct corn in Dakotas.
USDA June WASDE S/D June 10. Analyst est US 2020/21 soybean carryout 110 and corn 1,030. Analyst est US 2021/22 corn acres near 93.0 carryout 1,150, soybean acres 88.5 carryout 110. USDA acreage and grain stocks report June 30. USDA reports, US weather, China demand key. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,040 mil bu vs 5,019 ly, beans 776 vs 1,396 wheat 841 vs 1,028.
Last week, World soybean exports to China were 1.8 mmt, Year to date 68.8 mmt + 6 pct vs USDA +1. Last week China soybean crush was 2.1 mmt up 9 pct last year vs USDA est of +5.
Brazil soybean export demand slowing. June line up 7 mmt vs 14.3 shipped in May.
Matif rapeseed futures and Canada canola futures rallied to 3 week highs on US weather forecast.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 35,000 Corn; 12,000 Soybeans, 7,000 soyoil, and 2,000 in soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 334,000 Corn; long 158,000 Soybeans; long 34,000 Soymeal, and; net long 98,000 Soyoil.
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