Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SN is down 6 cents and near 14.04. SMN is near 425.5. BON is near 51.50. CN is down 5 cents and near 5.74. WN is unch and near 6.08. KWN is up 1 cent and near 7.41. MWN is unch and near 7.73. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower
Soybean futures are lower. SN is near 14.00. SX is near 12.60. SN-SX spread near 1 month low on concerns about export demand. Some feel the market is already trading a big US 2023 crop and taking weather premium out. Higher US interest rates and demand worries are also weighing on grain futures. One group estimated Brazil soybean crop near 158 mmt vs USDA 154. 55 pct of Brazil soybean crop has been sold and adding to storage problems and lower export prices. NASS US soybean crush was near record 198 mil bu. Market discounted the higher demand versus lower export outlook. US hog margins are negative which could drop soymeal demand. Demand for palmoil is lower. This and lower crude is weighing on soyoil futures. Lower sunoil and RSO prices are also competing for palmoil and soyoil demand.
Corn futures are also lower. Talk of higher Brazil summer supply and lower US 2023 and 2024 export demand limits upside in futures. US corn barge basis lowest since Nov, 2021. US ethanol data today. US weekly export sales data tomorrow. Some are already taking 100 mil bu off US exports est vs USDA. Matif corn futures are new contract lows on talk of higher Brazil imports, lower wheat and barley feed prices and higher estimates of EU 2023 corn crop vs last year. CK-CN spread tested new highs near +58 on low pipeline supplies especially to crushers.
Wheat futures are mixed. The fact Russia offered 1 .5 mmt of wheat for export to Egypt was negative. Egypt bought 300 mt Russia old crop near $260 fob. This below what was thought a $275 floor. They also bought 120 Romania wheat at same price. Egypt bought 236 mt new cop Russia wheat at $255 fob. Russia green light to sell below “floor” price is negative. Hit or miss rains in US SW plains is negative. Delay is US and Canada HRS plantings could be positive. EU and Black Sea weather is near normal. Argentina is dry.
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