Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SN is down 6 cents and near 14.66. SMN is near 458.8. BON is near 53.39. CN is down 1 cent and near 6.24. WN is down 1 cent and near 6.875. KWN is up 1 cent and near 8.32. MWN is unch and near 8.48.
Weekly US soybean export sales were lower than expected. Conab raised their estimate of the Brazil soybean crop. US cash basis remains strong but there should be more focus of SX. China March soybean imports were a record 6.8 mmt and up 8 pct from last year. China announced they will reduce amount of soymeal in ration from 14.5 pct to 13. SN remains in a 14.50-14.85 range. SMN is back up against key resistance near 462. BON is on the defensive waiting for increase production capacity for biofuel.
Corn is near 6.20 support with resistance near 6.40. CK continues to gain on CN. Commercials are short and need corn. US Midwest weather is favorable for planting although yesterday’s morning GFS weather model suggested cold temps April 20-22. USDA announced 327 mt US corn to China, 191 for 2022/23 and 136 for 2023/24. Hard to rally corn futures with Conab estimating their corn crop at record and good US weather planting weather. Ukraine corn exports only 17 mmt vs 25 expected. It sounds more and more like Russia may not extend the Ukraine corridor export deal.
Wheat futures sold off Thursday with extended weather maps hinting of some rain for dry parts of US south plains. Some feel the maps are too wet. Market also dealing with higher wheat supplies in EU and Russia. KWN just can’t get over 8.75 and is back near support at 8.25.
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