Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are sharply higher after US Fed lowered rates lower than expected. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.14. Some still feel SX could be in a choppy 9.55-10.31 range. US domestic soybean basis is lower ahead of harvest. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. No USDA announcements of new US soybean sales. Key to soybean futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil future were lower. Weekly US export sales are est near 500-1,600 mt. Record Brazil drought has lowered Amazon water levels all-time lows.
CORN
CZ is near 4.14. Some feel CZ could be in a choppy 3.85-4.20 range. US Miss river levels are near record low. This lowering drafts and tow size. Corn is supported by south America weather. Forecast of Midwest rains could slow harvest. Higher US barge freight has pushed US export prices above other origins. Key to corn futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil, Weekly US ethanol prod was down 3 pct vs last week and up 7 pct vs ly. Stocks up .3 oct vs last week but up 9 pct vs ly. Weekly US export sales are est near 550-1,400 mt China resisting buying US corn.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.69. KWZ is near 5.72. MWZ is near 6.11. Wheat futures traded lower on increase tech selling. Overnight trade is lower. Key is demand for US wheat and 2024 south hemisphere Russia and 2025 crop weather. Russia wheat still being offered and lowest origin. Weekly US export sales are est near 300-650 mt
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