Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch and near $66. Gold is higher. Ukraine drones attacked Russia overnight.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.17. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Trade est of Brazil soybean crop at 169.1 mmt vs USDA 169 and Argentina 48.8 mmt vs USDA 49. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 379 mil bu vs USDA 380. Brazil soybean harvest is near 60-65 pct. One group lowered US 2024/25 soybean exports 125 mil bu and 2025/26 soybean exports 665 mil bu. US soybean exports are near 1,412 mil bu vs 1,289 ly. USDA announced 195 mt US soybeans to unknown. There was talk China may have cancelled 1-2 soybean cargoes over the weekend. China imposed tariffs on Canada canola oil.
CORN
CK is near 4.73. Dalian corn futures were higher. E Brazil should see normal rains. Brazil corn supply tight before safrina harvest in July. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in ECB and SE. Mexico could leave corn off retaliatory list. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 126.0 mmt vs USDA 126.0 and Argentina at 49.0 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout at 1,516 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. US corn exports are near1,144 mil bu vs 860 ly. USDA announced 126 mt US corn to Japan.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.60. KWK is near 5.76. MWK is near 6.00. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 797 mil bu vs USDA 794. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. US wheat exports are near 552 mil bu vs 494 ly. USDA rated KS wheat crop 52 pct G/E vs 54 last week, TX 18 pct G/E vs 34 last week and OK 46 pct G/E vs 35 last week.
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