Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end, quarter end and year end. Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. Crude oil is unch near $57.70. USD is higher. Precious metals are lower after CME raised margins. Russia and Ukraine exchanged attacks on Black Sea ports. This is my last morning grain comments. It has been a good run. I have worked with some great people at ADMIS and been honored to work for many ADMIS customers including brokers and ADM. Many years ago, I learned to write a comment brief, concise and informative. I try to keep the report one page. Report should be like reading a book backwards with final chapter first.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.57. USDA announced 136 mt US soybeans to China and 231 mt to unknown. Trade estimated US Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3,295 mil bu or up 195 from ly. Sep-Nov crush was a record 660 mil bu but exports were 14 year low and 463 mil bu. Brazil and parts of north Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. South Argentina is dry. Weekly US export sales are est at 1,400-2,400 mt. China is offering stimulus to local governments, state banks and state owned enterprises. Goal is isn’t short-term stimulus but to stabilize indebted economy.
CORN
CH is near 4.39. Trade est US Dec 1 corn stocks at 13,140 mil bu vs 12,075 ly. Sep-Nov exports were record 836 mil bu vs 517 ly. Weekly US export sales are est at 1,000-2,000 mt. Will see if there are any new corn sales to China.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.08. KWH is near 5.16. MWH is near 5.77. Trade est US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,649 mil bu vs 1,573 ly. Sep-Nov exports were record 247 mil bu vs 193 ly. US south plains temps are warmer than normal and could make crop vulnerable to cold spell. Weekly US export sales are est at -50-400 mt.
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