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More Selling Ahead For Sugar


March sugar reached a new 5-week high, but turned sharply to the downside and finished with a heavy loss yesterday. Sugar found early carryover support from energy prices. However, a sizable pullback in the Brazilian currency weighed on the sugar market as it will encourage Brazil’s Center-South mills to produce more sugar for export instead of ethanol for their domestic market. Funds net long 182,582 contracts; more selling ahead.


With 2 sessions left to go, cocoa has an over 400 point gain for the third quarter (up 18.4%) which combined with a sizable net spec long position will leave the market vulnerable to long liquidation. Global demand remains a concern, but a positive shift in global risk sentiment can help cocoa prices hold their ground.


After finishing last week on an upbeat note, coffee prices have fallen back on the defensive early this week. With the market likely to still have a decent-sized net spec long position even after their September selloff, coffee remains vulnerable to additional long liquidation.


The lower close yesterday is disappointing technical action and suggests the possibility that a short-term peak is in place. Open interest remains high, and the weekly crop progress report showed some production and quality issues are possible, but a major production loss appears unlikely. December cotton closed lower after trading to its highest level since September 16.


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