Most Markets Are Lower
Grain calls are mixed to lower. SN is down 3 cents and near 8.67. CN is near unchanged and near 3.29. WN is unchanged and near 5.02. Stocks are lower. Concern of a second outbreak of the virus could weigh on commodity prices. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
US weekend was dry. The 6 to 10 day has strongly mixed ideas from the models for the Midwest. The European sees rains to fall in far eastern MN, the NE 2/3rd of IA, far NW IL and most of WI late Saturday night into Sunday; rains are also seen for the OH River later Sunday into early Monday, with things fairly quiet elsewhere. The GFS sees rains to fall in nearly all of the region, with far northern IL and SE WI to miss most of the rains.
Forecast of rains returning to the Midwest next weekend could weigh on corn futures. Some feel near record managed fund short could support prices but a higher US 2020 corn supply would be bearish. Lack of US farmer selling has supported the cash basis but will be negative when they sell. Demand for US beef and pork exports have slowed and could weigh on corn prices. US June 1 corn stocks could be near 5,000 mil u versus 5,202 last year. US 2020 corn acres could be near 94.0 versus USDA 97.0.
Key to soybean prices will be US summer weather and China buying pace. Lack of open unshipped old crop and new crop soybean sales is concerning. China is on a record pace for soybean demand but they need to pick up the pace in buying US or prices may fade. US June 1 soybean stocks could be near 1,430 versus 1,790 last year. US 2020 soybean acres could be near 86.0 versus USDA 83.5.
East Black Sea and Kazakhstan weather has turned hot and dry. This could support wheat prices especially versus corn. Record higher domestic Russia wheat and flour prices could also support wheat futures. Resistance though is strong near 530 WN. USDA June Wheat report was bearish to prices. Some now estimate US 2020 wheat crop near 1,906 mil bu versus USDA 1,877. US weather helps expand HRW harvest.
On Friday. Managed Money were net buyers of 2,000 SRW what, sold 1,000 corn, bought 5,000 soybeans, sold 1,000 soymeal and sold 1,000 soyoil. We estimate funds are net short 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 293,000 Corn; net long 29,000 Soybeans; net short 51,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net short 7,000 Soyoil.
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