Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SH is down 5 cents and near 12.63. SMH is near 379.0. BOH is near 47.84. CH is unch and near 4.64. WH is down 2 cents and near 6.04. KWH is down 5 cents and near 6.23. MWH is down 1 cent and near 7.13. 1st trading of new year was 2nd lowest to 2013. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower and traded below $70. Metals are lower on bearish China President economic outlook.
CH ended near 4.64. Dry Brazil has seen needed rains with more coming. Ukraine vessel exports are on the increase. 2024 US corn stocks will increase. China US imports or lack of will be key. Weekly US corn exports were near 22.4 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 470.5 mil bu or up 25 pct vs ly. US Midwest could see large snowstorm mid next week with temps turning colder.
SH dropped below 12.70. SF traded over SH with exporters large net shorts SF. Global crush is forecasted to increase which could be negative soymeal. US Biodiesel production may have peaked with lower margins and what feed stock is being used? Trade lowering est of Brazil soybean crop but SA production is still est up 15-25 mmt vs ly. US Nov crush is est near 199.7 mil bu vs Oct record of 201.4 and 189.6 ly. Trade is worried that China may be done buying US soybeans for now. Weekly US soybean exports were near 35.3 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 854 mil bu or down 19 pct vs ly. US Midwest could see large snowstorm mid next week with temps turning colder. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were lower.
WH had a bad opening day for new year. WH is near 6.04. Australia and Argentina supplies are down but will be offering exports Q1. US plains, EU and Black sea winter wheat crops have little snow cover with colder temps forecasted. US HRW crop ratings improved while SRW dropped. KS is 43 pct G/E vs 32 previous and 19 ly, OK 67 vs 53 and 38 ly, NE 48 vs 49 and 18 ly. IL is 55 G/E vs 72 previous and 68 ly. and KY 74 vs 85 and 63 ly. Weekly US wheat exports were near 10.0 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 354 mil bu vs 437 ly.
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