Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
March Crude Oil was near unchanged early Wednesday after finding support on Tuesday from a couple of incidents between the US and Iran that elevated geopolitical concerns, the US Navy shooting down an Iranian drone that they said was aggressively approaching the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and reports of a group of Iranian gunboats approaching a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The API report Tuesday showed US crude stocks were -2.3 million barrels for the week ending January 30 versus trade expectations from a Reuters poll calling of +500,000. Gasoline stocks were +200,000 barrels versus +1.4 million expected, and distillate stocks were +300,000 versus -2.3 million expected.
PRODUCTS
The API report was a bit supportive to gasoline and negative for diesel, with US stocks +200,000 barrels for the week ending January 30 versus +1.4 million expected and distillate stocks +300,000 versus -2.3 million expected.
NATURAL GAS
March Natural Gas was slightly higher early Wednesday, but it had managed to only recover a portion of the losses from the selloff on Monday. The market has been whip-sawed this past week by a winter storm/cold event that does not appear to have much staying power. The 8-14 day map shows above normal temperatures returning to eastern two-thirds of the US. There are some below normal temps emerging in the west, but not as extreme as what was experienced in the eastern half recently. For the EIA storage report this week, the early Reuters poll of analysts has an average trade expectation calling net draw of 315 to 380 billion cubic feet for the week ending January 30.
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