Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 8 cents and near 13.18. SMZ is near 354.7. BOZ is near 58.84. CZ is down 3 cents and near 5.47. WZ is unch and near 7.39. KWZ is unch and near 7.28. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 9.12.
S MN and N IA rains could add soybean bushels there. Russia dry. S Brazil/ N Argentina could see rains. Near record heat index could stress crops in KS, NE, MO, IL, IN. Yield models est US SB 49, corn 174. Tropical storm could hit US Delta Sunday/Monday. Could drop 4.00-9.00 inches of rain. Slow harvest.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher. Financial, currency, energy and commodity markets awaiting Fed comments. Fed speech 9:00 am CT. Spread of Delta virus could slow US/World economy. Fed could taper late in 2021.
Weekly US corn export sales were 300 thousand bushels. Total shipments 2,605 vs USDA 2,775 goal. Weekly US soybean sales 2.8 mil bu. Total shipments 2,203 vs USDA goal 2,260. New crop sales 64.
New crop US soybean export sales down 250 mil bu vs last year. China needs to increase US sales. Weekly US wheat export sales 4.3 mil bi. Total commit 335 vs 431 ly. USDA goal 875 vs 992 ly.
Drop in World non US wheat exports stocks to use ratio near historic lows. Support wheat prices. Domestic US soymeal basis firming. C IL near +12 vs -6 ly and -8 average. Helping crush margins. US domestic SW plains corn prices $35/tonne below HRW prices. US Sep corn yield/Sep 1 stocks key.
Dalian soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn prices are lower. USDA est China 2022 hog crop lower. Key to 21/22 corn prices farmer selling, China export demand; soybean, SA weather and China demand.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 2,000 soymeal and sold 3,000 soybeans; 1,000 soyoil and were net even corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 SRW Wheat; long 273,000 Corn; net long 93,000 Soybeans; net long 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 69,000 lots of soyoil.
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