Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch. CN is down. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Opec+ suggested that production will gradually increase 2.2 mil barrels per day Sep,2024 to Oct, 2025..
SN is near 11.85. USDA estimated US soybean plantings at 78 pct vs 73 average. Near record US corn crop rating suggest next week USDA could do same for soybeans. Sharp drop in energy prices and lack of China buying US soybeans weighs on prices, Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. Weekly US soybean exports were 12.8 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,480 mil bu vs 1,789 last year.
CN is near 4.43. USDA estimated US corn plantings at 91 pct. USDA rated the US 2024 corn crop 75 pct G/E. Corn followed weakness in energy markets. Brazil Safrina crop was lowered but one commercial group est Brazil crop at 122 mmt vs USDA 122 and Conab 111, Brazil corn futures were lower and tested April lows. Weekly US corn exports were 44.5 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,985 mil bu vs 1,178 last year. US Midwest. 6-10 day is dry and warmer.
WN is near 6.75. Wheat rallied early after Russia extended state of regional state of emergency due to recent frost/freeze. Prices dropped when energy prices collapsed. US WW harvest is 6 pct, Crop was rated 49 G/E vs 48 last week and 36 last year. US HRS crop is rated 74 G/E vs 64 ly. US season to date exports are near 687 mil bu vs USDA 727. Russia July May wheat exports near 50 mmt vs 41 ly. Algeria and Egypt is tendering for wheat.
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