Written Commentary
New month. Same news. Grains are mixed. SN is unchanged and near 8.41. CN is unchanged and near 3.25. WN is down 3 cents and near 5.17. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices were down roughly 4 cents; HRW down 17; HRS up 10; Corn was up 1 cent; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $6.00, and; Soyoil up 80 points;
Wire services are reporting that China may have temporarily suspended buying some US AG goods including soybeans. Despite higher prices, China continues to buy Brazil soybean for November. South America corn prices are below US. Asian buyers will soon increasing wheat buying. Russian prices are firm due to higher domestic prices but it would appear Asian buyers will be looking at Black Sea origin. Asian buyers bought Australia wheat last week.
US farmers are expected to have planted 92-94 pct of the US corn crop, 79-82 pct of the US soybean crop and 91-93 pct of the US spring wheat crop. US weekly corn crop ratings could increase 1-2 pct to 71-73 pct good/ex. USDA could report the first US soybean crop rating which is expected near 66-69 pct good/ex.
There is still concern that it will take time for US/World economies to rebound from loss demand due to the virus. 25 pct US unemployment continues to reduce demand. . Spike in virus cases in California, Wisconsin and Arkansas raises new concerns, Breakout of civil unrest also adds to uncertainty.
Corn prices continue to find resistance due to talk final US ethanol demand could drop 300-350 mil bu and raise US 2019/20 carryout to 2,500 mil bu. Favorable US weather over the next 2 weeks and mostly favorable weather in east Europe and Black Sea could weigh on corn and wheat futures.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 Corn; net sold 5,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 255,000 Corn; net short 1,000 Soybeans; net short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 4,000 Soyoil.
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