Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
New Month. Grains are lower. SU is down 14 cents and near 14.72. Overnight high was 15.04. SMU is near 440.1. BOU is near 65.39. CU is down 8 cents and near 6.07. Overnight high was 6.21. WU is down 7 cents and near 7.99. Overnight high was 8.20. KWU is down 7 cents and near 8.66. Overnight high was 8.86. MWU is down 10 cents and near 8.96. Overnight high was 9.13.
US stocks are lower. Crude was lower. China economic data suggest delay in rebound. US Dollar is lower.
Weekend US rains were in OK, MO, AR, MS and AL. Rains are now in C IL. July US Midwest rains were normal across parts of ND, SD, KS, MO, S IL, IN, OH and KY. Rains were below normal in MN, IA, KS, OK, TX, IN. EU model has showers in MN, WI, IL, MO, IN, OH, KY and TN. US 8-14 day US Midwest 8-14 day forecast is warm and dry. NOAA 30 day is also warm and dry. W EU is warm and dry.
Wheat prices are lower on talk of increase Ukraine grain exports. Some feel wheat futures are near seasonal low with much of the N Hemisphere harvest done and some estimating that World 2023 wheat supply might be down 20 mmt. WU range 7.50-8.50.
Brazil continues to export corn. US Midwest rains and concern about lower demand offered resistance to CU near 6.30. 2022 US and EU corn supply could be down 20 mmt. Some feel that US 2022/23 corn export demand could be up 200 mil bu from USDA est.
Soybean futures are lower on concern about China demand. SU tested 15.00. Rain in C IL and on Lasalle street is offering resistance. SU so far is trading inside day with support near 14.50. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher.
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