Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade across the Ag space this AM with soybean oil once again the upside leader. Not even bearish NOPA stocks data could slow bean oil from surging into new contract highs and a 16 month high on the weekly chart. Higher energy prices is also lending support. Wire services are reporting the EPA is expected to submit their proposal for 2026 biofuel blending mandates to the White House this week for final approval. The agency is reportedly considering between 5.2-5.6 bil. gallons annually for 2026, up from only 3.35 bil. last year. Once received the Trump Administration is expected to release the final proposal within 30 days. EIA data for weekly ethanol production is delayed until tomorrow. Recent rains has helped ease crop stress across EC and southern Argentina. Additon rains and mild temperatures over the next 7 days will continue to improve crop prospects. Weather to remain mostly favorable in Brazil with a good mix of rain and sunshine. Much above normal temperatures today across the central Midwest will give way to more seasonal temperatures late week and weekend before warming again in week 2 of the outlook. Moderate to heavy snowfall across the N. plains and northern Midwest. Spot crude is up $1.60. The US $$ is slightly higher while holding within yesterday’s range. US stock indices are higher.
Corn:
Mch-26 is up $.01 ½ at $4.27 ¾ while holding within yesterday’s range. First resistance is the 50 day MA at $4.35. Spot prices remain rangebound between $4.15-$4.40. A Bloomberg survey shows traders expect 2026 corn acres to slip 3.8 mil. to 95 mil. acres, still well above the 90.9 mil. planted in 2024. Production is expected to drop 6.4% to 15.936 bil. bu. Yesterday’s export inspections at 59 mil. bu. were above expectations bringing the YTD total to 1.406 bil. up 44% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are up $.07 ½ at $11.41 ½ trading to a 2 ½ month high. Next resistance is the Dec-25 high just below $11.50. Mch-26 meal is $.50 higher at $306.30 while holding within yesterday’s range. Mch-26 oil is up 108 points at 58.37. NOPA crush in Jan-26 at 221.6 mil. bu. was down from 225 mil. in Dec-25 and just above the Ave. est. of 218 mil. bu. and well above the 200 mil. bu. from Jan-25. NOPA data would suggest census crush at 226 mil. bu. vs. 230 mil. in Dec-25. YTD crush thru the first 5 months of the 25/26 MY would reach 1.118 bil. bu., up 7.2% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 5%. Oil stocks however surged 15.7% from Dec-25 to 1.90 bil. lbs., well above the Ave. est. of 1.668 bil. lbs. and above the range of estimates. The Bloomberg survey shows traders expect acres to jump 3.8 mil. in 2026 to 85 mil., still below the 87.26 mil. planted in 2024. Production is expected to rise 4% to 4.430 bil. bu.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.03-$.09 higher overnight. CGO Mch-26 is up $.07 ¼ at $5.45 while holding within yesterday’s range. KC Mch-26 is up $.09 at $5.47 ¾. Spreads in both CGO and KC firmed overnight. Expect the VSR for CGO SRW futures to drop to $.00165 in mid-March. The Bloomberg survey shows traders expect wheat acres to slip .6 mil. in 2026 to 44.7 mil. Production is expected to drop 5.7% to 1.872 bil. bu. Ukraine’s Farm Union is concerned recent thaw than freezing conditions may negatively impact their winter crop.
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