ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was steady to higher overnight after it bounced off the 100-day moving average yesterday. The market has taken a bullish turn this week, managing to break out above a two-month trading range. The trade is focusing on diminished prospects for Ghana’s crop, the world’s second largest producer of cocoa. The outlook has deteriorated in the wake of news that the cocoa regulator Cocobod lowered its target quantity for purchases this year to 650,000 metric tons from an earlier prediction of 810,000. Cocobod also announced it would not be taking out a loan to finance its purchases this year, which has raised concerns about the group’s ability to buy beans. Growers in Ghana said that hot and dry weather has caused flowers and pods to dry up in major producing regions in Ghana. This contrasts with Ivory Coast, where farmer updates have been mostly positive.
COFFEE
December NY Coffee was near unchanged overnight following a sharp selloff yesterday after the market failed to follow through on Tuesday’s move to a new contract high. London robusta prices were slightly higher. Both contracts made new highs this week off concerns about the slow export pace from Vietnam and dry conditions in Brazil. Brazil’s robusta harvest is complete, and their arbacia harvest is getting close. Safras & Mercado said 98% of Brazil’s overall coffee crop has been harvested versus an average of 95% at this time last year. Vietnam’s harvest normally begins in October. The weather there looks favorable, but there are concerns that La Niña will bring heavier than normal rains in upcoming months that could disrupt bean picking and drying. Brazil’s weather continues to be drier and warmer than normal, and this is raising concerns about their next crop, which is enters its bloom season next month. ICE arabica stocks fell 3,403 bags yesterday to 838,167, their lowest since last Friday.
COTTON
December Cotton was higher overnight but inside the range of the past two sessions. The market found support this week off deteriorating conditions in west Texas, but it was knocked back by the slow pace of US exports. The weekly export sales report yesterday showed US cotton sales for the week ending August 15 at 93,008 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and 4,928 for 2025/26 for a total of 97,936. This was down from 111,298 the previous week. Cumulative sales for 2024/25 have reached 4.306 million bales, down from 5.165 million a year ago and lowest since 2016/17. Sales have reached 31% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 50% for this point in the season. Shipments totaled 168,837 bales, up from 131,271 the previous week. The top buyers were Pakistan at 24,922 bales, India at 18,331, and Bangladesh at 16,759. China was in ninth place at 2,247. Pakistan has the most commitments for 2024/25 at 813,200 bales, followed by Mexico at 517,300 and China at 471,400. This is a far cry from last year, when China was the largest buyer. West Texas has limited rain and very warm temperatures in the forecast, which suggests there will be further deterioration in Monday’s progress report. The weekly US Drought Monitor showed 30% of the US crop was within an area experiencing drought as of August 20, up from 22% the previous week and 13% on August 6. Drought areas have expanded in west Texas and the Panhandle.
SUGAR
October Sugar was higher overnight, as it continued its bounce off this week’s 16-month lows. Brazil’s Conab increased its forecast for the 2024/25 sugarcane crop yesterday to 689.83 million metric tons, up from its April forecast of 685.86 million but still down from 713.21 million in 2023/24. The revision higher was credited to improved rainfall in northeastern Brazil. However, low rainfall and high temperatures in the main Center-South region this year is expected to keep overall output down from last year. Center South production has been running ahead of year ago levels since the marketing year began in April, but that is expected to change as we move through the season. The production pace fell behind year-ago levels in July, and cumulative production has started to narrow its gain over last year. Good weather in Thailand is expected to boost their production this year; harvest usually commences in November. Pakistan’s government has announced it is allowing the export of 100,000 tons of sugar in 2024/25. The Russia Sugar Producers’ Union sixth sugar beet test of the season showed sugar content at 16.1% in August versus 14.9% a year ago.
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