Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
January Crude Oil was higher early Monday but found resistance at the 50-day moving average (59.97). The market found support from indications that the progress is slow for the peace talks in the Ukraine/Russia war. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy commented that “tough issues have yet to be resolved” following talks in Florida. Zelenskiy and company are in Europe to rally support from allies, and the US negator, Steve Witcoff, is headed to Moscow. News that OPEC+ had agreed to leave output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 at its meeting on Sunday may have been bullish, but it was not a surprise. Ukraine drone strikes damaged key equipment at the Russian port of Novorossiysk over the weekend, but Chevron later reported that loadings of crude oil at its Tengizchevroil venture were continuing.
PRODUCTS
Product prices did find support early Monday on reports of more drone strikes on the Russian port of Novorossiysk over the weekend as well as on a less optimistic view towards the peace talks in the Russia/Ukraine war.
NATURAL GAS
January Natural Gas was higher at one point early Monday and was for the most part confined to the upper end of Friday’s range. A winter storm moved across the northern US over the weekend pretty much as advertised, but it did remind traders that we are in a key demand period for the year, which is a change of pace from the warm trend earlier this season. Some bitter cold temps are coming in the wake of the storm. The 6-10-day forecast calls for much below temps in the northeastern quadrant of the lower 48 states, out through mid-December. The back and forth in the Russia/Ukraine peace talks add some choppiness.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
