Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices rose despite a firmer dollar as markets await ISM PMI and ADP private nonfarm payroll data for clues on the Fed’s path in December as the US government shutdown continues on, preventing the release of official government data. Money markets are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the Fed will cut rates, down significantly after Fed Chair Powell said a December rate cut was not a foregone conclusion. Gold will benefit from weaker US economic data and support the case for further Fed rate cuts. Elsewhere, China ended a tax exemption policy for some gold retailers on Saturday, which could dent a buying spree in China. However, its impact will likely be small on global prices.
The World Gold Council released data last week that showed global gold demand rose by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 metric tons, the highest quarterly number on record as investment demand soared. Demand for gold bars and coins rose 17% in the third quarter, led by India and China, while inflows into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds jumped by 134%. Central banks, another major source of gold demand, increased purchases by 10% to 219.9 tons in the third quarter. Kazakhstan was the largest buyer, while Brazil purchased gold for the first time in over four years. Continued purchasing of gold by central banks will continue to provide long-term support for the yellow metal.
Silver: Silver prices moved higher, with December US futures trading around $48.35 as markets await ADP jobs and ISM PMI reports for clues on how the Fed will move in December.
Platinum: Platinum rose 1.2% to $1,593.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices in the US rose, while benchmark copper at the LME was little changed at $10,887. Worries about shortages pushed it to a record high of $11,200 last week alongside easing US-China trade tensions.
PMI data from China missed expectations for growth. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing purchasing manager’s index fell to 50.6 in October from 51.2 in September, below expectations of 50.7. Only employment showed a positive month-on-month change, while all other indicators declined. It should be noted that the survey was taken when President Trump had threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Monday’s reading was better than an official survey released on Friday, which showed that factory activity declined for the seventh month in a row. The official purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.0 in October from 49.8 in September, a six-month low, per the National Bureau of Statistics. The Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China’s demand for copper, has dropped to $36 a ton, from $58 in late September and $100 in May. Rising stocks at the SHFE also suggest weaker Chinese demand, with stocks rising 45% since late August to 116,140 tons. Markets will look to US ISM manufacturing PMI data for direction today. The index is expected to post a reading of 49.4 for October, continuing a trend of declining manufacturing activity.
Supply worries still remain supportive of prices in the short term. Copper output in Chile, the world’s largest producer of the metal, fell 4.5% year-on-year in September to 456,663 tons. Glencore lowered its annual copper production guidance to between 850,000 and 875,000 tons, versus 850,000 to 890,000 tons previously. The miner’s copper production in the January to September period fell 17% to 583,500 tons from last year. Anglo American also reported a 9% drop in copper production in the first nine months of 2025. Elsewhere on the supply front, Freeport-McMoRan lowered its sales outlook following the pause in operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile continues to see production issues, while problems in the Dominican Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo have added further pressure to global supply.
Zinc: Zinc gained 1% to $3,086.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.8% to $2,906.5.
Tin: Tin was up 0.6% at $36,290.
Lead: Lead added 0.5% to $2,027.5.
Nickel: Nickel lost 0.3% to $15,175.
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