Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
While mostly lower trade across the Ag space overnight, prices have recovered trading close to unchanged. Bean oil is the upside leader having traded to a fresh 6 month high on hopes for improved demand for biofuel and/or trade with India. Friday’s CFTC-COT data showed MM’s were modest sellers of soybean oil while lite buyers everywhere else. Heavy speculative buying in soybeans after the Tues. CFTC reporting cutoff has likely taken the MM long position back up to 100k contracts. Markets will likely need to see some indication of additional Chinese buying to keep prices above the $11 level. Scattered rains this weekend in Brazil favored NC regions and the deep south in RGDS. Little to no moisture across the mid-South. East-central into Southern Argentina was dry with moderate rains across the north. Much better prospects for rain across Cordoba and N. Buenos Aires this week with lighter amounts for S. Buenos Aires. Much of the US Midwest will see above normal temperature the next 2 weeks. Rains over the next 7 days to favor the Delta and SE. Some rains to impact the SE plains. Lighter amounts for the Central plains why dry in the north. Spot crude is up $.20 a barrel. US $$$ is lower. US equity markets are slightly lower.
Corn:
Mch-26 is down $.01 at $4.29 ¼. Spot prices remain rangebound between $4.15-$4.40. Lower FOB offers from Argentina starting to cut into US exports. 2nd crop plantings in Mato Grosso have reached 28% vs. 26% YA. APK Inform has lowered their forecast for Ukraine exports 2 mmt to 23.5 mmt due to continued missile attacks by Russia. The USDA forecast is at 23 mmt. Corn O.I. plunged over 23k contracts on Friday.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans are down $.01 ½ at $11.13 ¾. Mch-26 oil is up 77 points at 56.10. Mch-26 meal is down $3.60 at $300. Mato Grosso is 40% harvested vs. only 28% YA. Safras & Mercado report only 34% of the 2025/26 soybean crop has been sold by Brazilian farmers, down from 42% YA and the 5 year Ave. of 45%. Combined biodiesel and RD production fell 3.3% in Nov-25 to 418 mil. gallons. YTD production at 4.278 bil. is down 10% YOY. Policy uncertainty led to slowed production rates. Industry capacity rose less than 1% to a new record high of 6.972 bil. gallons annually. Soybean oil usage slipped 7.6% to a 7 month low at 930 mil. lbs. Usage in the first 2 months of the 25/26 MY at only 1.936 bil. lbs. is off 20% vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%. Despite optimism over higher RVO’s and Z45 tax credits the delay will likely trigger another cut in the USDA usage for biofuels currently at 14.8 bil. lbs.
Wheat:
Mixed trade overnight with prices ranges from up $.01 in MIAX to $.03 lower in KC. CGO Mch-26 holding near its 100 day MA at $5.30. KC Mch-26 trying to hold MA support near $5.26 ½. APK Inform lowered Ukraine’s export forecast 2.2 mmt to 14.5 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 14 mmt.
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