Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade across the Ag space overnight as prices bounce back from yesterday’s disappointing close. Soybeans have led to way up $.07-$.10 however holding within yesterday’s range. Meal is up $2 with oil up 55 points. Corn is $.02 higher, also holding within yesterday’s range. Wheat ranges from $.01-$.05 higher. China’s renewed interest in US soybeans has fueled this week’s fund buying and price volatility. Yesterday the USDA announced a flash sale of 336k tons to China, with likely more on the way. Total sales believed to be approaching 9.5-10 mmt. US Supreme Court to rule on the legality of the Trump Admin. use of tariffs on Friday. Showers by the end of this weekend to provide relief across C. Argentina, still dry to the South. Forecasts remain crop friendly in Brazil. Some moisture relief for the EC US plains by the end of the week. Crude oil is down $.10 a barrel. The US $$$ and stock indices are little changed, this after new all-time high closes in the DJIA and S&P 500 yesterday.
Corn:
Mch-26 holding just above its 50 day MA at $4.44 ½ and near the midpoint of its 2 month range of $4.35-$4.55. Today’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production range from 320-332 mil. gallons LW, vs. 329 mil. the previous week. Brazil’s Ag Ministry reports corn exports reached 6.13 mmt in Dec-25, up 44% YOY.
Soybeans:
Mch-26 beans holding near $10.65 with 100 day MA resistance at $10.85. Inside trade for Mch-26 meal as it consolidates near $300. Mch-26 oil again challenging $.50 lb. after rejecting trade above this level yesterday. Markets will likely need to see confirmation of Chinese purchases to maintain recent strength. Look for the USDA to raise their already record Brazilian production forecast closer to 180 mmt, up from their current 175 mmt est. No change yet for Argentina. The current forecast for bean oil usage for biofuel production at 15.5 bil. lbs. appears way to high.
Wheat:
Mch-26 CGO holding near 1 week high at $5.15. Mch-26 KC bumping up against 100 day MA resistance at $5.27 ½. Since late Nov-25 WW conditions in KS fell 2% to 60% G/E, still well above the 47% G/E from YA. Ratings fell in CO, NE, OK and TX, while increasing in MT and ND.
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