Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Month end. SK is down 10 cents and near 15.32. SN is near 14.97. SX is near 13.16. SMN is near 420.5. BON is near 59.35. CK is unch and near 7.01. CN is near 6.48. CZ is near 5.45. WN is down 4 cents and near 7.24. KWN is down 4 cents and near 6.88. MWN is up 1 cent and near 7.46. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Copper is higher.
Deliveries were 9 Soymeal; 629 Soyoil; 463 Rice; ZERO Corn; 590 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 66 Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; 337 HRS Wheat.
US Midwest 6-10 day calls for cool temps north warm south. Below normal rains west normal east.
Rumors China cancelling Brazil soybean looking to buy US Oct-Nov and March 2022. Also rumors of SA soybean and corn coming into US and US crushers need soybeans June forward. 33 pct Argentina soybean harvest vs 68 ly. Crop est near 43 mmt. Corn harvest 20 vs 37 ly. Crop 46 mmt.
China corn, soybean and soyoil futures all sharply lower. Matif May rapeseed/wheat sharply higher.
US HRW export prices $40 higher than Russia prices and $50 higher than German/ Baltic
US north plains, south plains and Canada prairie forecast dry. EU forecast drier. Brazil dry.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 18 cents; HRW up 14; HRS up 29; Corn is up 16 cents; Soybeans down 17 cents; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil up 85 points. Crushing margins are up 16 cents at $0.84 (July); Oil share up 1% at 41%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly $1.15; HRW up $1.15; HRS up $1.34; Corn is up $1.01 cents; Soybeans up 72 cents; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 890 points. Crushing margins are up 22 cents $0.84 (July); Oil share up 4% at 41%.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 63 yuan in soybeans, down 21 in Corn, down 23 in Soymeal, down 78 in Soyoil, and down 60 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 49 ringgit at 3,902 (basis July) at midsession.
U.S All Wheat sales are down 1% versus a year ago, shipments unchanged with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase, Corn up 85%, shipments up 83% (USDA up 50%), Sorghum up 102%, shipments up 178% (USDA up 45%) and Soybeans up 57%, shipments up 67% (USDA up 36%) There is concern that record 1,048 open unshipped corn commit may not all get shipped.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 2,000 contracts of Corn; sold 9,000 Soybeans; net even in Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 38,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 492,000 Corn; net long 195,000 Soybeans; long 50,000t Soymeal, and; net long 112,000 Soyoil.
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