Prices Mixed Approaching AM Pause

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Overnight saw 2 sided trade with prices mixed as we approach the AM pause.  Wheat is the upside price leader as speculative traders continue to pare back their net short position.  Wildfires in the US Southern plains have scorched tens of thousands of winter wheat acres with no rain in the near term forecast.  It will likely be weeks before damage to this years crop can be quantified.  USDA Outlook Conf. starts today with markets keenly interested in the total acres expected to shift from corn to soybeans this Spring.  Weekly ethanol production later this AM with export sales pushed back to Friday.  Scattered showers across Southern Argentina the past 24 hours with heaviest concentration in N. LaPamba, S. Cordoba and SanteFe.  Look for crop ratings to stabilize or improve in this weeks update from the BAGE.  Dry across much of Brazil the past 24 hours beneficial for soybean and 1^st crop corn harvest along with 2nd crop corn plantings.  In the US much cooler temperatures across the N. plains will gradually spread across the Great Lakes region and ECB thru this weekend.  Moderate to heavy snowfall for portions of the NC Midwest.  Some mixed precipitation for NE and C. Iowa, otherwise rains to favor the ECB over the next week.  Above normal temperatures begin to expand from the S. plains by early to middle of next week.  Spot crude is up $1.00.  The US $$ is slightly higher carving out a fresh 2 week high.  US stock indices are lower.

Corn: 

Mch-26 is down $.00 ½ at $4.26 ½ while holding within yesterday’s range.  First resistance is the 50 day MA at $4.34 ¾ with support at this week’s low of $4.25 ¼.  EIA data is expected to show ethanol production rebound to 331 mil. gallons LW, up from 326 mil. the previous week.  The USDA Outlook Forum showed corn acres slipping 4.8 mil. from YA to 94 mil.  An average trendline yield of 183 bpa results in production at 15.755 bil. down 7.4% from YA.  Total demand is forecast to fall 400 mil. bu. to 16.070 bil.  Exports and feed/residual both down 200 mil.  Endings stocks at 1.837 bil. would be down 290 mil. from 25/26 MY.

Soybeans: 

Mch-26 beans are down $.01 at $11.32 ½ holding within yesterday’s range.  Mch-26 meal is $1.00 lower at $303 trading back below its 100 day MA.  Mch-26 oil is up 27 points at 58.86 carving out a fresh contract high.  The USDA Outlook Forum showed bean acres jumping 3.8 mil. to 85 mil.  An average trendline yield of 53 bpa results in production at 4.450 bil. up 4.4% from YA.  Total demand is forecast to jump 207 mil. bu. to 4.464 bil.  Exports are forecast to rise 125 mil. to 1.70 bil. with crush up 85 mil. to 2.655 bil.  Endings stocks little changed at 355 mil. bu.  Bean oil demand for biofuel production is forecast to surge 17% to 17.3 bil. lbs.  Exports are expected to drop 50% to 600 mil. lbs.  Meal exports are forecast at a record 20,800 short tons.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.04-$.07 higher.  CGO Mch-26 is up $.06 ½ at $5.53 ½ trading to a fresh 3 month high.  KC Mch-26 is up $.06 at $5.57 trading to a 6 month high.  The USDA Outlook Forum showed all wheat acres in 2026/27 MY slipping 300k to 45 mil.  An average trendline yield of 50.8 bpa results in production at 1.860 bil. down 6% from YA.  Total demand is forecast to fall 50 mil. bu. to 1.978 bil. with endings stocks steady at 933 mil. bu.

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