Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices fell in a wave of profit-taking after prices rose to a six-week high yesterday following a global risk-off mood that was spurred by a sell-off in the JGB market, which has since stabilized. Markets are pricing over an 87% chance that the Fed will lower rates. Also providing support for gold was sentiment that Kevin Hassett will be named as the new Fed Chairman soon. President Trump on Sunday said that he has made his pick for the next Chairman, although declined to confirm that it was Hassett. Currently, Hassett has a 64% chance of getting the nomination per prediction market Kalshi. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the president would likely name the replacement before Christmas.
Services PMI figures will be out tomorrow and will be closely watched for any signals on the health of the labor market, given there will be no official data on it until after the Fed meets. The November ADP employment report on Wednesday and core PCE figures for September on Friday could give markets further cues on the Fed’s policy path.
Silver: Silver futures are down 0.5% to $58.85.
Platinum: Platinum is up around 1.4% to $1,652.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices are lower, falling from record highs reached yesterday as profit-taking took ahold of the metal. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME fell 0.4% to $11,207 after hitting a record peak of $11,334 on Monday.
ISM Manufacturing PMI data out of the US showed that manufacturing conditions in the US continue to remain subdued, with the index falling to 48.2 in November from 48.7 in October. The reading posted the ninth straight month of a contraction in activity as deliveries, new orders, and employment fell. Price pressures also grew, with the prices index rising, although it remained below highs seen in the late spring and summer. Meanwhile, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in November from 50.6 in October, hitting its lowest level since July and missing forecasts of 50.5. The survey showed a drop in factory activity as output and new orders remained stagnant amid job cuts and low purchasing levels. However, business sentiment improved due to expectations of new government policies and expansion plans.
Markets also continue to assess the impact of new that top copper smelters in China will cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to counter overcapacity in the industry. Smelters in China have been facing negative processing fees due to extreme competion. The move follows comments by Chen Xuesen, Vice President of China’s Nonferrous Metal Industry association, who said last week that the state-backed association “firmly opposes any free and negative processing” of copper concentrate. However, skepticism in the markets remains has previous attempts to curb overcapacity in China have ultimately proved to be fruitless.
Zinc: Zinc slipped 0.4% to $3,084.
Aluminum: Aluminum gave up 0.2% to $2,887.
Tin: Tin dipped 0.1% to $39,115.
Lead: Lead added 0.2% to $2,005.
Nickel: Nickel shed 0.2% to $14,900.
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