Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Liberation Day? Grains lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch near $70. Gold is higher and supported by China buying. Today’s new tariff reciprocal could be key to price volatility. Purdue University Ag economic barometer dropped 12 points due to drop in cash prices.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.29. Shock and ah helped SK trade above 20 and 100 DMA. Talk of better US policy concerning biofuel subsidy rallied BON to 47.66 Dragging SN behind with SN near 10.50. SMN held near 290. US tariffs are bearish soybean demand to China. One crop scout est Brazil soybean crop at 169 mmt and Argentina 48. Argentina custom workers announced 2 day strike. Soyoil also supported by talk US will supply India soyoil with reduced tariffs. Over last 20 days funds traded and average of 2,500 soyoil contract per day. Mondays total was 15,000 bought. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. EU oilseed imports are up 10 pct yoy, soymeal up 14 pct and vegoil down 28 pct.
CORN
CK is near 4.55. Shock and ah helped CK trade above 20 and 200 DMA. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is wet. There is some new concern US south Midwest and SE corn acres could be planted later than normal. Domestic Brazil corn basis remain firm on higher ethanol production. Dalian corn futures were higher. EU corn exports are down 35 pct yoy. US and Argentina are lowest prices export origin. EU and GFS weather models suggest some flooding rains across pars of AR,MS,TN,KY, S IL, S IN and Ohio. US tariffs could be negative to corn exports to Mexico and EU.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.36. KWK is near 5.62. MWK is near 5.89. Still tough to get WN near 5.50 let alone above. EU weather maps forecast Russia rains. East US plains could see showers. US SRW crop areas could see heavy rains. EU wheat exports are down 35 pct yoy. US SRW export price is lowest of all origin to buyers. Still, Matif futures were higher on talk France sold 5-6 wheat cargoes to Morocco. No confirmation of sales to Egypt.
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