ADMIS News
COCOA
July Cocoa gapped higher on Thursday after the first-quarter grind numbers for Asia and Europe came in better than expected, and it is higher again today after the North American grind came in better than expected on Thursday afternoon, after the close. That number was 110,278 metric tons, down 2.45% from the same period a year earlier, as reported by the National Confectioners Association. As reported early Thursday, Europe’s first-quarter cocoa grind came in at 353,522 metric tons, down 3.75% from a year ago. Asia’s grind was 213,898 tons, -3.45%. Going into the reports, traders had been looking for a declines of 5%-7%. The better than expected grind number suggest demand has not been as damaged by high prices as feared. The dollar was sharply lower overnight on Trump’s complaints about Fed Chair Powell, and this lends support to commodities like cocoa, but on the side of the coin, there are still worries that tariffs and a global trade war will hurt demand. Ivory Coast and Ghana received moderated rainfall over the weekend, but above normal temperatures keep evaporation rates higher than optimal and more rain is needed. Little change is expected over the next week to 10 days. Rain will be appreciated but sub-optimal. ICE certified stocks increased 7,381 bags on Thursday to 1.891 million, their highest since October 21.
COTTON
A sharply lower dollar make US look relatively cheaper on the global market, which helps US export prospects. The market put in a spike low after President Trump postponed the implementation of the tariffs for 90 days. The USDA export sales on Thursday showed an improvement over recent weeks, with net sales of 201,990 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and 65,889 for 2025/26 for a total of 267,879 for the week ending April 10. This was up from 133,966 the previous week and the highest since March 6. Shipments totaled 328,215 bales, down from 377,221 the previous week and the lowest since February 20, but this was still the seventh straight week above 300,000. Cumulative sales for 2024/25 have reached 105% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 104% for this point in the marketing year. Vietnam was the biggest buyer at 40,066 bales (old and new combined), followed by India at 35,322 and Turkey at 31,969. China canceled 13,080. Vietnam has most commitments for 2024/25 at 2.490 million bales, followed by Pakistan at 2.227 million, Turkey at 1.555 million, and China at 693,000. The weekly Crop Monitor showed that 22% of US cotton production was within an area experiencing drought as of April 15, down from 23% a week earlier after being as high as 35% in early March. The Texas Blacklands and the US Delta could see further planting delays to due to heavy rains and muddy and flooded fields. West Texas could see some spotty rainfall through early this week and next weekend, but they need more.
COFFEE
Coffee prices rallied last week on tight robusta supplies and firm prices in Vietnam. The market has moved back into the February-March consolidation range after a technical breakdown early this month. The Brazilian real end NY coffee both put in spike lows on the day Trump announced the delay in the tariffs. A strong real reduces pressure on Brazilian growers to sell their product for export. The sharply lower dollar this morning could lend additional support to the real and therefore coffee prices. The weather forecasts for coffee are generally favorable Brazil, but the question remains whether it will be enough to produce a decent crop this year. World Weather Service expects coffee areas to see highly varying rainfall during the next 7-10 days, but most crop areas are expected to get moisture at one time or another. Favorable crop development is also expected in Indonesia, most of West Africa, northern Tanzania into southern Ethiopia and in some areas of Vietnam. ICE certified stocks increased 8,275 bags yesterday to 795,588.
SUGAR
July Sugar is up for the third straight session this morning after putting in a 2 1/2 month low last week. The Brazilian real was sharply higher on Thursday, which reduces the impetus for Brazilian producers to sell for export, and the dollar was lower again overnight, which suggests the real could see further gains. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil’s center south cane crop on Thursday, and it left sugar production practically unchanged. They put the 2024/25 center-south cane crop at 618.56 million metric tons versus 616.86 million in their previous forecast. Center-south sugar production was seen at 40.32 million tons versus 40.31 million previously.
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