Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. US has agreed to allow for Black Sea grain exports to flow without restrictions. GraIn exports have been flowing normal so far this season. US relaxed restrictions on SWIFT which open Russia to more Bank partners.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.03, Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. SNK is near 296.3 and finally below 300. Dalian soyoil and palmoil were lower. BOK is near 41.92. Brazil soybean basis steady. Slowdown in China buying offset by slow farmer selling. Most of Brazil should see rains. This could slow harvest. Trade is looking for US farmers to plant 83.8 million 2025 soybean acres vs 87.1 ly. Trade is also looking for US March 1 soybean stocks at 1,905 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. SK near 10.00 support. Lower US 2025 acres offset lack of new China buying. Potential increase in China tariffs helped soyoil if their use cooking oil imports are slowed.
CORN
CK is near 4.58. 4.55 is support. Dalian corn futures were lower. New selling came in the corn market on talk of higher US 2025 corn acres and potential quick planting season. Opening of Black Sea grain and fertilizer exports also offered resistance. Trade is looking for US farmers to plant 94.4 million 2025 corn acres vs 90.6 ly. Trade is also looking for US March 1 corn stocks at 8,154 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. Brazil corn futures dropped to 6 week low.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.52. Talk of Black Sea rains offered resistance to futures. US SRW export prices are lowest to World buyers but most doubt we will see increase demand with Russia wheat open. Russia wheat has been flowing normal but open to SWIFT accounting bearish. Last year Turkey, Egypt and China wheat imports were near 23 mmt. This years range id as low as 14 to as high as 37 mmt. US plains remain dry. Trade is looking for US farmers to plant 46.5million 2025 wheat acres vs 46.1 ly. Trade is also looking for US March 1 wheat stocks at 1,221 mil bu vs 1,089 ly.
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