Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry but cool. Rain today in SD, SE MN, LA and S MS. CME grains closed Sunday evening session, Monday day session and reopen Monday evening session for Labor Day holiday.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.44. Soybean market entering demand bear market. BOZ is near 51.95. SMZ is near 287.0. Dalian soybean, soymeal were lower. Soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Global soymeal supplies are tight but US maintenance period is over which should add to soymeal supply. July US soybean crush is est at 207.2 mil bu vs 193.3 ly. US soybean old crop export commit is near 50.8 mmt vs 45.5 ly. New crop sales rose 1.1 mmt with sales near 1.5 mmt. Good sales helped soybean futures bounce off oversold tech picture. China bought a few cargoes of new crop Brazil soybeans.
CORN
CZ is near 4.11. 4.15 is resistance. US old crop export commit is near 70.4 mmt vs 55.9 ly. New crop was up 2.8 mmt with sales near 18.7 mmt. US lakes are competitive to W EU. US gulf to EU and N Africa and PNW to Asia. Some could see increase US corn exports to EU. US record large 2025 corn supply should weigh on futures, basis and spreads. Weekly US ethanol production was down slightly vs last week. Stocks were down from last year. Margins remain positive. Record US corn and soybean crops could pressure US storage capacity.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.28. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.15. MWZ is near 5.77. Even in 2016 a year of global wheat oversupply wheat futures bottomed in September. HRS futures dropped on increase harvest pressure and talk of good yields. Weekly US wheat export sales were 579 mt. Total commit is 12.1 mmt versus 9.9 ly. Combined Australia and Argentina 2026 crop could be record 65 mmt. Australia and Argentina futures continue to slide lower. Matif wheat futures also lower with private est of crop near 140.2 mmt vs USDA 138.2. Canada est wheat crop at 35.5 mmt vs 35.9 ly.
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