Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Record Highs for S&P 500 & Dow Futures


Stock index futures kicked off the second quarter on a firm note.

The 8:45 central time March PMI manufacturing report is expected to be 52.5.

The 9:00 March Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 48.3, and the 9:00 February construction spending report is predicted to show a 0.5% increase.

The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while the technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.


The U.S. dollar index is higher.

The Governor of the Bank of Greece, and member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, Yannis Stournaras, said “If inflation develops in line with our March forecast, and if this trend continues until the end of the year, I believe that this year we will have reductions in key interest rates from the ECB.” “Personally, I think the reduction of interest rates by four times this year, by 25 basis points each time, is possible.” However, he said his view was not shared by all policymakers at the ECB.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Monday there were some speculative moves in the foreign exchange markets that did not reflect economic fundamentals, repeating his warnings against excessive yen declines. He said, “We will watch currency market developments with a strong sense of urgency, and will respond appropriately against excessive moves without ruling out any options.


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Friday that the central bank was in no hurry to cut interest rates, and that the latest PCE inflation data was in the line with what the Fed wants to see.

Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve will speak at 5:50 PM.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 7.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the May 1 policy meeting, and there is a 93.0% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.

The consensus view currently is that the FOMC will lower its fed funds rate three times this year starting in June.

My view is that only two cuts are likely this year.

The fundamentals and technicals are bearish on balance.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started