Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are slightly lower. Trade are waiting for Nividia earnings USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Meats are higher. Goldman and Deutshe Bank are concerned about US economy. Sobering US labor and inflation data, worries about long term consequences of US Trade War and fears over Trump attack on the Federal Reserve could weigh on US economy. US Midwest forecast is dry but cool.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.50. BOZ is near 53.68. SMZ is near 290.6. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Brazil crush margins continue to drop. This could reduce soymeal supplies. SMU has been higher on short squeeze. China announced a 164 mt auction of soybeans from reserve. There are 590 soybean contracts registered for delivery, 516 soymeal (-40 overnight nd 707 soyoil.
CORN
CZ is near 4.07. 4.05 is support. CU-CZ spread at -23 suggest adequate corn supply. US lakes are competitive to W EU. US gulf to EU and N Africa and PNW to Asia. US record large 2025 corn supply should weigh on futures, basis and spreads. Domestically, demand for ethanol and feed use is on the rise and competes for exports. Still, corn exports will need to increase to help absorb the record supply. Record US corn and soybean crops could pressure US storage capacity. There are 0 corn contracts registered for delivery.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.28. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.14. MWZ is near 5.88. Even in 2016 a year of global wheat oversupply wheat futures bottomed in September. HRW futures and spreads are down due to increase competition for Dec-Feb World trade. There could also be some wheat cash selling to make room for record US corn crop. Both Australia and Argentina futures were lower. Interesting that Jordan’s cost to buy wheat is up $12 tonne from previous tender but Matif and CME futures are down 3-4 $ tonne. There are 34 Chicago wheat contracts and 419 KC wheat registered for delivery.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
