Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are quietly mixed. US stocks are slightly lower. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry with above normal temps. Brazil and Argentina are dry.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.32. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. US Midwest remains dry with warmer temps. Trade est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 328 mil bu vs USDA 330. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 288 mil bu vs USDA 290. Trade est US crop at 4,271 mil bu vs USDA August 4,292. Weekly US soybean export sales wer 541 mt. Total commit is 9.3 mmt vs 14.2 ly. August NOPA crush is est at 182.8 mil bu vs 158.0 ly. Brazil increased 24/25 soybean crop to 171.47 vs 169.65 previous and USDA 169.0.
CORN
CZ is near 4.19. Farmers are expected to speed harvest before corn dries down like last year. Trade est US 24/25 corn carryout at 1,311 mil bu vs USDA 1,305. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,011 mil bu vs USDA 2,117. Trade est US crop at 16,516 mil bu vs USDA August 16,742. Dalian corn futures were lower. US corn export sales were 539 mt. Total commit is 22.6 mmt vs 13.3 ly. Brazil increased 24/25 corn crop to 139.67 vs 137.0 previous and USDA 132.0. Second crop 112.0 vs 109.56 previous.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.20. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.09. MWZ is near 5.72. Wheat futures bounced before USDA report. Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout at 865 mil bu vs USDA August 869. Trade est World 25/26 wheat end stocks at 261.1 mmt vs 260.1 in August. US wheat export sales were 305 mt vs Total commit is near 12.7 mmt vs 10.6 ly. This was the send week where sales were below 500 mt. Some estimate EU wheat crop at 141.0 mmt vs USDA 138.3. USDA has a problem today. World production is up while export trade is down from their August guess. Will they make adjustments?
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