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Seasonal Uptrend for Stock Index Begins


Stock index futures are higher.

November durable goods orders declined 2.1% when down 0.8% was expected

Personal income in November increased 0.4% when up 0.3% was anticipated and personal consumption expenditures advanced 0.1% when an increase of 0.2% was predicted.

The 9:00 central time November new home sales report is estimated to be 600,000, and the 9:00 December consumer sentiment index is expected to be 59.1.

There is a seasonal tendency for the last five days of a calendar year and the first two trading days of the new year for stock index futures to trade higher. Today is the beginning of that period. If this seasonal works it would mark the seventh one in a row.

down trend graph


The U.S. dollar index continues to underperform the news.

Interest rate differential expectations are long-term bearish for the greenback, and lower prices are likely.

The annual inflation rate in Japan increased to 3.8% in November 2022 from 3.7% a month earlier, pointing to the highest reading since January 1991.

The Bank of Japan may surprise markets again by tightening monetary policy as soon as next month.


According to financial futures markets currently, there is a 66.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the February 1  policy meeting and a 34.0% probability that the rate will be hiked by 50 basis points.

The fundamental and technical aspects are supportive for futures.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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