ADMIS News
COFFEE
September NY Coffee is lower this morning and approaching the April 9 low, being led down by the London (robusta) futures, which have fallen to their lowest level since September. The robusta market has led NY arabica prices lower for several weeks, as the advancing robusta harvest in Brazil and Indonesia have eased what had been a tight global supply. Brazil’s arabica harvest is underway, and this could add direct pressure to cash arabica prices. Brazil’s crop is expected to be smaller this year, but several agencies have revised their forecasts higher from their initial forecasts. However, the nearby Brazilian real reached its highest level since October yesterday, which reduces the pressure on Brazilian growers to sell for export. World Weather Service does not see any risk of crop damaging cold in Brazil during the next two weeks.
COCOA
September Cocoa is lower this morning, as it continues in a sideways pattern that it has observed for the past three weeks. A slowing cocoa arrivals pace in Ivory Coast supported the market earlier this week, but it failed to build on the rally and has given mag a good portion of those gains. There were reports from growers that they were getting concerned that too much rain and gray skies last week interrupted the drying of newly-harvested beans, which could increase the chances of mold. Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, the CCC said this week that actual arrivals since the marketing year began in October had reached only 1.540 million metric tons, short of the 1.624 million reported in the weekly counts. They said that the weekly arrivals numbers included cocoa that was ultimately rejected due to quality issues. World Weather Service says rainfall is expected in West Africa cocoa areas over the next week to ten days. Amounts will be mixed. This should be good for main crop development as long as there are periods of sunshine as well.
SUGAR
October Sugar gapped lower overnight and fell to its lowest level since March 2023. Yesterday, Brazil’s Copersucar, the world’s largest sugar trader, said that sugarcane harvested its partners is expected to meet or exceed 2024/25 levels. This is further evidence that this year’s crop in Brazil has recovered from the drought last year. The resumption of the Indian monsoon this week after a delay last week reinforces the idea that they will see a strong crop in 2025/26 which will allow them to step up exports. Expectations are high for Thailand’s crop as well.
COTTON
December Cotton took out last week’s two-month low this morning, as the market has apparently given up on building a weather premium. The US Delta has experienced major planting delays due to wet conditions, but West Texas seems to be getting the moisture it needs in a timely manner. The USDA supply/demand report last week lowered US production for 2025/26 based on a much-delayed plantings in the Delta. This tightened the ending stocks outlook to a degree, but the stocks/usage ratio forecast was still above average. Next comes the Acreage report on June 30, and this could provide some underlying support as traders may be reluctant to push too much lower until that report is released.
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