ADMIS News
COFFEE
The fact that December coffee reversed higher yesterday after Brazilian trade data showed a sharp slowdown in exports could be encouraging for the bulls. The Brazilian trade group Cecafe said yesterday that Brazil’s September Arabica exports totaled 2.4 million bags, which was 20% below last season. The sluggish numbers could be indicating a lack of motivation for buyers and sellers to do business at current low prices. ICE exchange coffee stocks were unchanged on Tuesday.
COCOA
Cocoa prices remain in their late September/October consolidation zone, but they have started to lift clear of last Friday’s 8-week low. European third-quarter grind data is expected to be released on Thursday, and traders may grow cautious after the previous quarters proved disappointing. Ivory Coast port arrivals were very strong for the first week of the marketing year, but that was not a surprise given the higher official prices paid to farmers. The cocoa market is faced with a third global production deficit in a row in 2023/24 after struggles with too much moisture in west Africa this summer and El Nino threatening to cause problems in the coming months.
COTTON
December cotton extended its selloff overnight and traded to its lowest level since August 23, as the market focuses on the poor export outlook for the US and not the poor US crop. US export sales for 2023/24 are off to their slowest start since 2017. A strong Brazilian crop and reports that China is importing Australian cotton again after a 2-year suspension have US exporters concerned.
SUGAR
Reports this morning that the Indian government is set to restrict sugar exports for the 2023/24 marketing year came as no surprise, as there have been several hints of this potential action in recent weeks after the poor monsoon rains this summer. The Indian government had not confirmed this action at the time of the writing. Last year, exports were restricted to 6 million tonnes. The year before that exports were not restricted at all, and they totaled 11 million tonnes.
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