Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices slipped lower but held above $4,000 as a wave of profit-taking stalled the historic rally. Investors also weigh the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, although broader geopolitical uncertainty remains. Dovish Fed expectations continue to provide a nice tailwind to prices. September’s Fed meeting minutes showed that a majority of members support additional easing through the remainder of the year. However, a majority of members noted that upside risks to inflation remain elevated, although the board felt it was necessary to lower interest rates to help accommodate the labor market. Fed Funds futures are currently pricing a 94.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in October, while December odds of a 25 bps cut are at 81.5%.
Strong central bank and ETF demand also remain supportive of gold prices; global gold ETFs saw their third consecutive month of inflows in August per recent data from the World Gold Council. AUM by ETFs rose to their highest level since July 2022 and just 6% shy of record level. China’s central bank increased its gold holdings for an 11th straight month in September, while continued purchases by Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and the Czech Republic also provide a solid floor for prices. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its December 2026 price forecast to $4,900 an ounce from $4,300.
Silver: Silver prices broke the key $50 psychological level for the first time earlier this morning, although they have since retreated. Silver has gained more than 73% this year, benefiting from similar fundamentals as gold. Interestingly, net long positions in silver remain marginally higher, suggesting the rally is not built on speculative interest.
Platinum: Platinum futures slipped 0.1% to $1,698.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices on the LME hit $11,000 a ton for the first time since May 2024 as supply fears resume in the markets and as Chinese markets return following a week-long holiday. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME remains close to its all-time high of $11,104.50 set in May 2024, with the metal hovering just below $11,000 as of 8:30 a.m. CST. The Yangshan copper premium fell to $49 a ton from $58 a month ago. Total copper stocks in the LME warehousing system are at 139,475 tons, the lowest since late July.
Operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia remain suspended and it slashed its 2026 sales guidance by 35% following the suspension. Freeport-McMoRan indicated that full production is unlikely to resume until early 2027. Disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile’s El Teniente mine are also expected to remain. Chile’s copper output dropped almost 10% on a yearly basis in August. Elsewhere, Canadian miner Teck Resources on Wednesday cut its copper production forecast at its flagship Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) on Wednesday projected a surplus of approximately 178,000 tons in the global refined copper market for 2025, followed by a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026. In April, it forecast a surplus of 289,000 tons this year and an oversupply of 209,000 tons in 2026 as global mine disruptions keep the market tight. World copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, with an accelerated growth rate of 2.3% forecast for 2026, according to ICSG data. Meanwhile, refined copper usage is predicted to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Refined copper production is forecast to rise by 3.4% in 2025 but slow to 0.9% growth in 2026, the group said.
Zinc: Zinc climbed 1.2% to $3,042.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 1% to $2,780, having earlier touched $2,793, also the highest since May 2024. LME on-warrant inventories (not earmarked for removal) dropped to 398,775 tons on Wednesday, having shed 15% over the past month.
Tin: Tin jumped 1.3% to $36,880.
Lead: Lead added 0.8% to $2,018.50.
Nickel: Nickel gained 0.7% to $15,460. The International Nickel Study Group on Tuesday forecast a nickel market surplus of 209,000 metric tons for 2025, increasing to 261,000 tons in 2026. Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 3.82 million tons in 2026 versus 3.60 million in 2025, while global output of nickel is expected to rise from 3.81 million tons in 2025 to 4.09 million in 2026.
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