Written Commentary
SILVER
Silver futures are higher, building on recent gains as the dollar and Treasury yields fell. Additional support for silver came from China, where the industry ministry pledged to stabilize growth in key sectors such as machinery, autos, and electrical equipment. The initiative aims to modernize production and is expected to boost demand for metals. The action plan also covers 10 major industries, including steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemicals, and construction materials. Recent momentum behind silver and platinum has suggested that investors are turning to the white metals as pro-growth industrial alternatives to gold.
For silver, managed money traders were net buyers of 322 contracts, increasing their net long to 43,927.
The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, driven by its essential role in semiconductors, solar panels, and other clean-energy technologies, sectors that continue to attract substantial global investment. That demand has remained robust despite broad headwinds faced in the last few months as a result of tariffs. South Korea’s exports rebounded in June largely on brisk semiconductor shipments, indicating the importance of and demand for the technology, despite challenges from higher US tariffs weighing on global trade. Recent data highlights this trend: China significantly increased its wind and solar capacity in the first quarter of 2025, while solar power generation in Europe surged 30% year-over-year during the same period. Additionally, the structural supply-demand deficit remains favorable for silver, with the market expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth straight year.
GOLD
Gold futures are higher on a weaker dollar as investors await any developments on the trade front as the August 1 deadline looms. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident the US can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but that the August 1 deadline is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Elevated inflation expectations and strong economic data have weighed on expectations over the number of Fed rate cuts this year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller last week reiterated his call for a rate cut later this month, despite data showing ongoing resilience in the US economy and other officials pushing to keep rates steady. Investors now await upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman, seeking clearer signals on the central bank’s policy outlook.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 8,815 contracts of gold for the week ending July 15, increasing their net long to 143,656.
Strong central bank demand will continue to support gold prices. A recent World Gold Council survey showed global central banks expect to increase their gold holdings and are on track to buy 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, well above the previous decade’s average of 400–500 tons. Several African nations, like Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar, have also announced plans to expand their gold reserves.
COPPER
Copper futures are higher after China’s industry ministry pledged to stabilize growth in key sectors such as machinery, autos, and electrical equipment. China’s GDP grew 5.2% during April-June, slightly lower than the 5.4% in the first quarter, with first-half 2025 GDP growth at 5.3%. Fixed asset investment increased 2.8% year-on-year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Traders are turning their attention to how China will deal with overcapacity in its industrial sectors for further guidance on copper demand in the world’s largest copper consumer. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday morning that trade talks with China will be held “in the very near future.”
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 988 contracts of copper for the week ending July 15, increasing their net long to 37,275.
US COMEX copper’s premium over LME copper remains over $2,600 a ton. Provisional purchasing managers surveys on US manufacturing and services sector activity during July will be published this week and will be watched for signs of any economic fallout from President Trump’s tariffs, although recent data has shown that the economy is holding up relatively well with a limited impact on prices for the time being. Other US data includes existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Thursday, both for June, helping gauge demand for copper in the construction industry.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
