Written Commentary
SILVER
Silver futures are lower, following moves in gold as Tuesday’s inflation print signals that interest rate cuts may be harder to come by from the Fed.
The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, driven by its essential role in semiconductors, solar panels, and other clean-energy technologies, sectors that continue to attract substantial global investment. That demand has remained robust despite broad headwinds faced in the last few months as a result of tariffs. South Korea’s exports rebounded in June largely on brisk semiconductor shipments, indicating the importance of and demand for the technology, despite challenges from higher US tariffs weighing on global trade. Recent data highlights this trend: China significantly increased its wind and solar capacity in the first quarter of 2025, while solar power generation in Europe surged 30% year-over-year during the same period. Additionally, the structural supply-demand deficit remains favorable for silver, with the market expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth straight year.
COPPER
Copper prices fell in reaction to CPI inflation data. Copper prices were little changed on US and foreign exchanges following China’s release of GDP data that showed GDP growth met forecasts, hinting that traders were more focused on CPI inflation data. China’s GDP grew 5.2% during April-June, slightly lower than the 5.4% in the first quarter, with first-half 2025 GDP growth at 5.3%. Fixed asset investment increased 2.8% year-on-year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Traders instead are turning their attention to how China will deal with overcapacity in its industrial sectors.
Tariff threats from President Trump have reignited concerns over an economic slowdown as a result of tariffs. Despite the concern, copper prices remain near record highs reached last week after Trump also announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, set to take effect August 1. The measure is aimed at boosting domestic copper production and reducing reliance on refined imports. However, analysts warn the policy could strain US supply, as the US imports nearly half of its copper consumption. The impact could be amplified by limited refining and smelting capacity, with only two operating smelters in the US, raising concerns about supply bottlenecks.
Copper prices outside the US could be weighed down near-term as large copper producers look to shift supplies elsewhere. Global copper traders are offering cargoes to Chinese buyers as they look to offload metal no longer able to reach the US before President Donald Trump’s 50% copper tariff deadline. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and the number of offers by overseas sellers has been picking up since late June and is now the highest in months, per a Chinese copper trader.
GOLD
Gold futures are lower, following Tuesday’s inflation data, which saw prices increase across most sectors. The reading largely reinforces the Fed’s expectations that prices would rise later in the summer as the effects of tariffs make their way into the economy. Focus now turns to PPI inflation data due tomorrow and retail sales and jobless claims data due Thursday for more clues on the state of the US economy and the trajectory of monetary policy in the US.
Gold has gotten a lift from renewed trade tensions over recent weeks after President Trump threatened multiple countries with higher-than-expected levies, including 30% on the EU and Mexico over the weekend. Both the European Union and Mexico described the tariffs as unfair and disruptive, while the EU said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continues to press for a negotiated settlement. Further escalation in trade tensions will likely provide upward support for gold.
Strong central bank demand continues to support gold prices, with a recent World Gold Council survey showing global central banks expect to increase their gold holdings. In 2025, central banks are on track to buy 1,000 metric tons—well above the previous decade’s average of 400–500 tons—with several African nations like Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar planning to expand their reserves.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
