ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was trading in a relatively wide range early Monday as the market weighed slow Ivory Coast arrivals and less than ideal growing conditions in west Africa against reports of sluggish demand. Ivory Coast port arrivals were estimated at 51,000 metric tons for the week ending November 1, down from 90,000 for the same week last year and the lowest for that week in at least five years. Cumulative arrivals have reached 209,500 tons, down from 304,000 at this point last year and the lowest for this point in the season in at least six years. The five-year average is 327,400. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said rainfall was below average last week across most of the nation’s cocoa-growing regions but were sufficient enough to support harvesting in January and February and boost prospects for the main crop. World Weather Inc. expects erratic rainfall to continue in west Africa as seasonal rains wind down, but crop conditions are still rated well. Data from market researcher NIQ showed US consumers were spending less on Halloween candy than in previous years. Halloween chocolate sales fell by $33.1 million from a year earlier in the nine weeks ending October 17, the biggest drop in at least three years.
SUGAR
March Sugar was lower early Monday despite forecast for more rain in Brazil that does not bode well for production. World Weather Inc. says center south and interior southern Brazil will experience frequent rainfall during the next ten days, maintaining moisture abundance in many areas and inducing greater soil moisture in other areas. Wet weather has slowed production and reduced the sugar content in the cane, and high oil prices support ethanol demand. Last week, data from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry showed center-south sugar production for the first half of October was down 27.1% from a year earlier. The Brazilian real fell to its lowest level since the day it collapsed on October 26, and the weakness in the currency puts pressure on sugar prices on the idea that it increases the inventive for exports. It also increases the incentive to crush for sugar instead of ethanol. Lower crude prices early Monday after a new contract high on Friday may also be putting a damper on sugar prices.
COFFEE
December Coffee extended last week’s bounce for the third straight session early Monday. Perhaps the market became oversold on strong Brazilian export theme, especially with ICE exchange stocks holding near their lowest level in 26 years, even if there has been a modest increase in the amount pending review. ICE certified arabica stocks held steady at 225,068 bags on Friday after falling to their lowest levels since September 15 (the 26-year low) on Wednesday. Stocks fell 2,910 bags last week. The amount pending review has reached 47,476 bags, which is the highest since September 16. All of those bags are Brazil-origin. The Brazilian real was lower early Monday, though still well above last week’s low. The weak real should encourage Brazilian exports.
COTTON
December Cotton has been trading in an narrow sideways pattern for the past five sessions with mixed harvest weather in the US. World Weather Inc. said recent rains in west Texas and southwestern Oklahoma delayed harvesting and induced some yellowing of the crop. West Texas is expected to see a few showers Monday, mostly in the Panhandle, to be followed by a full week of mostly dry conditions. The Delta crops have been dry in recent weeks, but it will be impacted by some rain in the coming week. The southeastern states will also get some rain. As of last week, 52% of the crop had been harvested. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since October 1 overnight, matching the October 22 low, which is viewed as supportive to cotton as it makes US cotton more competitive on the global market. The Indian government has extended the suspension of cotton import duties until the end of December, which improves export opportunities as well. Last week’s export sales report showed China bought 57,400 bales, which is their largest purchase since March. A move to new contract highs in crude oil on Friday was viewed as supportive on ideas that makes polyester more expensive to produce, but oil prices were down sharply overnight.
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