Softs Markets Lower
In order to soothe near-term demand concerns, cocoa will need to see stronger global risk sentiment and a rebound in several key outside markets. For the week, September cocoa finished with a loss of 65 points (down 2.7%) which was a fifth negative weekly result over the past 6 weeks.
Until the market can receive fresh bullish supply/demand news, coffee prices are likely to remain on the defensive. For the week, September coffee finished with a loss of 3.65 cents (down 3.6%) which was a fourth negative weekly result over the past 5 weeks. The Brazilian currency lost more than 2% in value following Thursday’s holiday, and that gives more incentive to Brazilian producers to market their coffee to foreign customers. A very large Brazilian 2020/21 crop has weighed on coffee prices as it offset supply issues from other major producers
The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 forecast models now call for above normal precipitation over Texas and most of the cotton belt, which could neutralize some of the concerns about drought damage to the crop. While US cotton export sales have been running strong in 2019/20, the trade is also looking at expectations for US ending stocks to climb to 8 million bales in 2020/21, their highest level since 2008/09.
Sugar prices held up relatively well late last week in the face of negative outside markets. With fresh evidence to support a bearish global supply outlook, however, sugar will need to have a “risk on” mood redevelop in global markets in order to find its footing. For the week, October sugar finished with a loss of 5 ticks (down 0.4%) which broke a 3-week winning streak.
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