Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. US stock are lower on concern about lower crypto prices, talk Fed may not lower rates in December and concern about IT and retail earnings. USD is slightly higher. Crude is steady. Gold is lower. Copper is lower. Trade focusing on Thursdays non-farm payroll data. South America weather is mostly favorable for crops.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.60. Some overnight follow through buying from Mondays rally. There were no SX soybean deliveries. Wax off wax on. Mondays soybean futures rally linked to talk China bought 16-18 US soybean cargoes, mostly for May-July. Some feel this is more political than economic. Brazil soybean still cheaper. 900-1,000 mt buying still below 12 mmt agreed to China buying. US exports remain down 43 pct vs last year and USDA est of down 13. Soybeans also supported by record NOPA crush. US crush running up 9pct vs ly and USDA est of up 4-5 pct. Higher crush adds to soymeal supply vs lower animal numbers. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Matif rapeseed is higher on concern about drone attacks on Poland and Ukraine infrastructure.
CORN
CH is near 4.49. Dalian corn futures were lower. Wax off wax on. CH above 20, 50 and 100 DMA but below 200 DMA. Mondays corn futures rally linked to talk China bought US soybean cargoes. US exports were well above highest trade guess. US corn exports are up 73 pct vs last year and USDA est of up 9. US prices are competitive to Asian buyers. Middle east and N Africa corn buyers favor South America. There is new concern about Drone attacks in and around Ukraine Odessa port could slow movement to port.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.59. KWH is near 5.45. MWH is near 5.84. WH above 20, 50 and 100 DMA and testing recent highs near 5.60. WH like corn remains below 200 DMA. US exports are up 19 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. There were new concerns about Ukraine and Poland and infrastructure after new drone strikes, Argentina wheat futures are making new lows on higher supply. Rains are falling across EC US Midwest SRW crop areas. Rains are forecast for US HRW crop areas.
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