Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 29th day of partial shutdown. Record was 34 days under Trump 1.0. US Fed meeting today. Grains are lower. US stocks are mixed awaiting news on rates. USD is higher. Crude is lower and resting at 20 DMA support. Gold is higher and back above 4,000. W EU wet. Black Sea dry. C/W Argentina rains. Rains in Brazil except NE. Rains are in SE IA, MO, S IL, S IN and W TN.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.88. SF lower after talk China bought only 3 US PNW soybean cargoes. Some feel China and US may announce a 3 year framed deal which China could buy 30-50 mmt of US soybeans. The deal is non-binding. Bears will talk about SF going back to gap near 10.70. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher despite talk of US sales to China. Soyoil and palmoil were lower. SMZ remains above 300 but is overbought. BOZ is back below 20 DMA awaiting any new news on domestic demand. Brazil soybean basis lower on talk of US sales to China. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops.
CORN
CZ is near 4.31. CZ failed to test 4.37 has been following soybeans. CZ is overbought with support near 4.27. Some est Argentina corn crop could be a record 60 mmt vs USDA est of 53 and with 34 pct pf crop planted. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports. Dailan corn futures are said to be stable. S Korea paid $2 more than last week corn price and believed to be sourced from US PNW. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.28. KWZ is near 5.21. MWZ is near 5.61. WZ failed to test 5.38 with support now near 5.25. WZ is overbought. Wheat futures have followed higher corn and soybeans. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. Argentina is estimated near 23.0 mmt vs USDA 19.5. Australia is estimated near 38.0 mmt vs USDA 34.5. Record Argentina yield could question protein level. This could help US HRW export demand.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
