Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. Bitcoin is lower. New surges of cold sets the stage for subzero degree Fahrenheit low temperatures to settle into the lower Midwest Thursday with some extremes near and lightly below -10 in the upper Midwest impacting areas as far south as northern Iowa and Wisconsin. Most of this week’s coldest air will remain out of hard red winter wheat country where no negative impact to crops is expected because of cold temperatures. The Midwest soft wheat will be protected from the bitter cold by a deep layer of snow.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.34. China Aug-Nov soybean imports were 34.0 mmt vs 30.5 ly. US zero vs 13.4 ly. Brazil 25.7 vs 15.9 y. Argentina 7.1 mmt vs .9 ly. China Jan-Oct soyoil exports were 329 mt vs 73 ly. Total US soybean export commit is near 14.6 mmt vs 23.8 ly. N Brazil saw general rains. Argentina rains were better than expected. Argentina rains should move into S Brazil. South America weather forecast into Dec 15 is a mixture of rain, sunshine and near normal temps which should be ideal for crops.
CORN
CH is near 4.46. US cash basis is firm. Total US export commit is 33.5 mmt vs 23.5 ly. US PNW best price for Asia buyers. US gulf needs to compete for N Africa and Middle East buyers vs lower Brazil. Trade fears US corn sales are front loaded and could soon slow. Corn lacks new fresh news. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher due to debate on size of local crop. South America weather turning favorable for crops. There is talk China may have bought a few cargoes of US sorghum.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.34. KWH is near 5.23. MWH is near 5.78. Total US export commit is 15.8 mmt vs 12.9 ly. Argentina and Russia are aggressive export sellers. Chicago and KC wheat futures consolidating near support lines. MLS futures back near support. US Supreme couth decision on Trump tariffs and Black Sea peace talks key to market.
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