Soybean Oil Prices Pushing Up Against Recent Highs

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Higher trade across most of the Ag. space overnight with soybean oil prices pushing up against recent highs.  Bean oil is drawing some support from higher energy prices with spot crude oil up just over $1.10 per barrel.  Export sales later this AM.  Hot/dry conditions across east central and southern Argentina remains a concern.  The BAGE did show lower ratings for both corn and soybeans.  Expect further drops next week.  Rains will be needed by early Feb-26 to ease growing crop stress.  Brazil remains mostly favorable however southern growing areas in RGDS could also use a shot of moisture by early February.  In the US, brutal cold across the NC Midwest this AM with minus 15-25 degrees F common.  Single digit lows across the N. half of KS.  Below normal temperatures to hold across the eastern US into early Feb-26 with above normal in the west.  A major winter storm is expected to form in the southern plains today and move across the Southern Midwest and Delta this weekend leaving a trail of heavy rain, ice and snow.  The US $$ and major US stock indices are slightly lower.

Corn: 

Mch-26 is unchanged at $4.24.  The year round sales of E-15 did not make the final bill in the US House.  That could have potentially been a big longer term boost for corn demand that has been capped at 5.50-5.60 bil. bu. for nearly a decade.  Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production slipped to 329 mil. gallons in the week ended Fri. Jan. 16th.  While down from the previous week’s record high of 352 mil. it was above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. of 5.60 bil. gallons.  The BAGE reports Argentine plantings have reached 93%, vs. 98% YA.  May see some acres in the north switch to soybeans.  Cattle on feed on Fri. is expected to come in at 97% of YA, with placements at only 93% for YA.  Export sales are expected to land between 75-120 mil. bu.

Soybeans: 

Mch-26 beans are up $.04 at $10.68 however holding within yesterday’s range.  Mch-26 meal is up $1.00 near $297.  Mch-26 oil is up 50 points near 54.30 holding just below the Sept-25 high at 54.40.  The BAGE reports Argentine plantings have reached 96% while crop ratings fell 8% to 53% G/E, still above the 26% from YA.  Still waiting for SCOTUS to rule on the Trump Admin. use of tariffs and final RVO’s and SRE reallocation from the EPA.  Export sales are expected to range from 55-110 mil. bu. of beans, 200-500k tons of meal and 5-25k tons of oil.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.02 lower in MIAX to $.06 higher in KC.  CGO Mch-26 holding in $5.00-$5.25 range.  KC Mch-26 back above its 50/100 day MA’s at $5.26 while trading to its highest level since January USDA report day.  This week’s winter storm will help ease drought in the SE plains.  US winter wheat acres in drought increased 1% to 42% this past week hovering just below its 52 week high of 45%.  Export sales are expected to range between 6-16 mil. bu.

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