Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 22 cents and near 15.62. SX is up 13 cents and near 13.96. SMN is near 429.3. BON is near 64.67. CN is up 4 cents and near 7.13. CN high has been 7.22. CZ is up 8 cents and near 6.12. WN is down 3 cents and near 7.40. KWN is down 1 cent and near 7.16. MWN is unch and near 7.81. Wheat and corn may be seeing some profit taking. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Copper is higher. Lumber again up the daily limit.
Chinese Ag futures for (September) settled up 124 yuan in soybeans, up 24 in Corn, up 84 in Soymeal, up 362 in Soyoil, and up 352 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 143 ringgit at 4,187 (basis July) at midsession, a 13 year high amid supply concerns.
US 7 day rains will be in MO, S IL, S IN and Delta. Showers could fall across MT, W SD, E NE, MN, N IL/IN. US 6-10 day suggest below normal temps normal rains south below north. 8-14 cool normal rains.
China grain and oilseed futures are sharply higher. Matif and Canada rapeseed are higher.
Brazil is dry. Inform est Brazil corn crop at 95 mmt vs USDA 109. Some now as low as 85.
Soybean futures finding support from talk of higher US crush demand/margins and higher soyoil prices.
US 2020/21 soybean supplies tightening. World watching for new China demand post holiday.
US corn futures trading over $6 in May for only 3rd time, 2008,2011, 2012. Eventual price tested 7.75.
SX/CN ratio only 2.25. Suggesting soybean acres may not increase versus USDA March intentions.
Black Sea corn prices near $293 and has rallied $30 in 2 weeks.
There is some concern USDA could lower EU corn imports, raise China and keep US exports unch.
Wheat supported by dry NA HRS weather. Baltic wheat $7-10 below Black Sea, $35 below corn. $50 below US HRW.
Weekly US old crop corn sales est near 200-900 mt , new 100-600, soybean -100-200 new 100-600. Weekly US old crop wheat sales est near 0-250 mt, new 100-500.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 10,000 in Corn; bought 3,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 Soymeal, and; net even in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 424,000 Corn; long 183,000 Soybeans; long 53,000 Soymeal, and; net long 107,000 Soyoil.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; 35 Soyoil; 11 Rice; ZERO Corn; 212 HRW Wheat; 1 Oat; 7 Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; 1 HRS Wheat.
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