Written Commentary
Grains are mixed. SN is up 3 cents and near 8.54. CN is down 1 cent and near 3.22. WN is up 2 cents and near 5.10. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Metals are lower.
Soybeans prices have trended higher on word that China has bought US soybeans. Some feel that China may not be able to avoid buying US soybean given their increase demand for protein. Overnight China soybean futures traded lower on increase Brazil imports. Asian vegoil prices though continue to trade higher. This is helping soyoil futures. Some also feel USD may be low on their estimate of US soyoil exports. Soybean futures continue to be near the midpoint of a broad range between 8.00-9.00. China demand could offer support. Talk of higher US 2020 supplies and ongoing concern about the virus offers strong resistance. Most look for US 2019/20 carryout near USDA 580 and US 2020/21 carryout near USDA 405.
Corn futures remains in a 3.00-3.40 range. Lower South America corn prices could reduce US corn export demand. China continues to buy higher price Ukraine corn. Today US will report weekly ethanol date. Most look for slight increase in production and slight drop in stocks. Fact USDA increased weekly US corn crop rating offers resistance to prices. This week could see warmers temps with scattered rains. Tropical system could add widespread rains to the Delta and Midwest. Most look for US 2019/20 carryout near 2,225 vs USDA 2,089 and 2020/21 carryout near 3,500 vs USDA 3,318.
Today’s Black Sea weather maps are drier. Russia domestic wheat prices remain strong. Egypt bought Ukraine wheat in their tender. Russia offers were higher. Rains in west Europe continues to offer resistance too prices. US plains remain warm and dry. Harvest is beginning in OK. Drop in weekly winter wheat crop ratings could offer support.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 2,000 Corn; net bought 10,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 Soymeal, and bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 261,000 Corn; net long 8,000 Soybeans; net short 42,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 9,000 Soyoil.
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