Written Commentary
Grains are mixed. SN is up 3 cents and near 8.44. CN is unchanged and near 3.24. WN is down 2 cents and near 5.13. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. US stocks and some commodities could be following a higher trade in Crude. Traders are watching news about future OPEC production policy. Russia has talked about curbing cuts. Currently World production is near demand but demand is slow in recovering from virus induced drop in demand. US civil unrest adds to market worries.
USDA estimated the US corn crop is 93 pct planted. Delays continue in ND, OH and MI. There is talk that ND may not plant up to 2.0 million corn acres. USDA rated the corn crop 74 pct good/ex versus 70 last week. Best crops are in IA, MN, NE and SD. Farmers in SD say may be the best crop ever. Lowest ratings are in MI, OH and IL. US cash corn basis remains firm on slow farmer selling. He has a lot of corn to sell especially new crop. Corn futures remain in a 3.00-3.40 range. Fundamentals suggest lower prices. Managed funds are near record short. It will take a weather problem to push futures higher.
USDA estimated US soybean crop is 75 pct planted. Delays are again in AR, TN, KY, OH, MO and ND. USDA rated the crop 70 pct good/ex. This was higher than expected. US cash basis is firming on slow farmer selling. Despite higher price a majority of China buying is from Brazil. Yesterday it was reported that China crushers bought a few cargoes of US soybeans. Funds are about even soybean and soyoil but are short soymeal futures.
Fundamentals suggest lower futures price unless China buys US soybeans or there is a weather problem. So far the 30 day outlook is favorable for US crops.
Wheat future are lower. Despite a lower US Dollar, improving global wheat weather and USDA estimate on record World end stocks weighs on futures. USDA estimated that 3 pct of the US winter wheat crop is harvested. USDA dropped US winter wheat crop ratings to 51 pct good/ex. USDA estimated that 91 oct of the US spring wheat crop is planted and the crop is now rated 80 pct good/ex.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 8,000 Corn; net sold 1,000 Soybeans; net even Soymeal, and bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net shirt 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 263,000 Corn; net short 2,000 Soybeans; net short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 6,000 Soyoil.
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