Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher and up 2.0 pct. Turnaround Tuesday or bottom? Crude is unch and near $60. Gold, copper, silver, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Markets now trading 5 US interest rate cuts in 2025. USDA report Thursday.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.12. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Soymeal is at 1 month high. Palmoil and soyoil were lower. NE China remains dry. China demand for Brazil soybeans is quiet. EU saw frost in rapeseed crop. US southeast is dry but rains return the weekend. Weekly US soybean exports were near the higher end of trade range. US season to date exports are up 11 pct vs last year and USDA up 8. Solid exports and lack of new selling rallied SN back over 10.00. Fact Argentina crush shutdown helped meal and board crush. Crusher is 6 pct of total Argentina crush.
CORN
CN is near 4.74. So far, corn futures have been resilient to financial and energy meltdown. Weekly US corn exports were near the higher end of trade range. US season to date exports are up 30 pct vs last year and USDA up 7. Solid exports and lack of new selling rallied CN-CZ spread to +25. Mexico to corn may be exempt from new tariffs. Tightening World exporters supply helped support corn futures. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is drier but rains return the weekend. S IL, S IN and OH rains and Delta and SE rains could slow corn plantings there. USDA estimated US corn plantings at 2 pct. Some feel CN resistance is near 5.00 until more is known about final Brazil supply and US summer weather.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.58. KWN ended near 5.80. MWN is near 6.14. US SRW and now HRW export price is lowest of all origin to buyers. Season to date US wheat exports are up 15 pct vs last year and USDA up 20. WN resistance is near 5.60 then 5.73. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 48 pct G/E vs 56 ly. KS is 51 vs 49 ly, TX 26 vs 44, IL 63 vs 65 ly. KY dropped from 85 March 30 to 37. Some feel final US WW yield may be no better than 51.5. 3 pct of spring wheat crop is planted. Australia futures up sharply due to drop in supply.
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