Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. President Biden stepped out of the Presidential race. US Central Bank may be forced to lower rates as much as .50 basis points in 2024. Currency and equity markets volatility could increase before DNC.
SU is near 10.54. There was net commercial buying with soybean crush margins profitable and China finally buying a few cargoes of US new crop soybeans. Soybean futures were oversold. Soymeal futures near season lows on talk of higher South America supply. Soyoil futures near midpoint of recent range. Higher palmoil and soyoil supply offset by tighter rapeseed oil and sunoil supply.
CU is near 3.95. Could see some warm and net drying in west US Midwest. Funds have added to shorts on talk of higher US crop. Argentina corn yields are lower and support crop near 46 mmt vs USDA 53, Brazil corn export prices are now above US. There is also concern that final Black Sea corn yields could be down 25-35 pct from USDA numbers. 24/25 US exports could exceed 2,300 mil bu and ethanol margins are profitable. US cattle on feed was higher than expected.
WU is near 5.48. MWU is near 6.18. Black Sea weather remains warm and dry. Black Sea crop could be down 12 mmt from USDA. US wheat export commit is up 48 pct vs ly. New US HRS sales to EU helps support Minneapolis. French harvest near done with crop and quality lower than average. Slow US SRW sales offered resistance to futures.
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