Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch, near $77 and recent lows. Gold is higher.
SU is near 10.29. US 30 day forecast call for central Midwest rains. Drier and warmer weather is forecast for Ohio and Tennessee Valley and SW Midwest. Soyoil found new selling as US Appeals Court vacated EPA waivers of small refiners hardship denials. Court ruling does not mean SRE will be denied but EPA will need to decide SRE on a case by case basis. Despite talk of US 2024/25 demand up 300 mil bu, higher crop could increase US carryout to near 480. SU rejected 20 day moving average and is making new lows.
CU is near 3.93. US 30 day forecast call for central Midwest rains. Drier and warmer weather is forecast for Ohio and Tennessee valley and SW Midwest. Talk of US 2024 yield closer to 182.5 and 2045/25 exports down 125 mil bu vs USDA could push 2024/25 US carryout to near 2,400. CU rejected 20 day moving average and is back near season lows. Ukraine and SW Russia are lower. South America prices are higher
WU is near 5.19. Managed funds increased their net short on Friday Talk of US 2024 supply up 295 mil bu vs ly and demand up 185 suggest carryout near 810 vs 702 ly. WU rejected 20 day moving average and making new lows. Wheat futures challenged by talk of lower Black Seas supplies and drop in French wheat quality and size versus slow import demand and talk of slower World economy. US HRS sales to Italy suggest US HRS prices are competitive.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
