Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Futures are mixed.
The 2:00 central time March consumer credit report is expected to show a $15.5 billion increase.
The fundamentals and technicals are becoming more bullish.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher.
Interest rate differentials have turned neutral for the U.S. dollar.
Retail sales in the euro area increased by 0.8% from the previous month in March of 2024, improving from the upwardly revised 0.3% decline from the previous month and ahead of market predictions of up 0.6%.
German industrial orders declined in March by 0.4% compared to the previous month. Economists forecast a gain of 0.4%.
The majority of analysts believe the European Central Bank will lower its key interest rate at its June 6 meeting.
It is unlikely that the Bank of England will lower interest rates at its May 9 policy meeting. However, there is a growing probability that the BOE will cut interest rates at its June 20 meeting.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35% at its policy meeting today as expected.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are a little lower at the short end of the yield curve and are higher at the long end of the yield curve.
The Treasury will auction three-year notes.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will speak at 10:30 when he participates in moderated conversation on an overview of the economy before the Milken Institute Global Conference.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 66% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
The fundamentals and technicals have improved.
Futures at the long end of the curve are likely to gain on futures at the short end of the curve.
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