Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower after both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended at fresh records yesterday, as markets headed into their final day of trading in the first half of the year.
The national employment report from Automated Data Processing, Inc. showed an increase of 692,000 U.S. private sector jobs, which compares to the expected 550,000 gain. The ADP employment report is computed from ADP records that represent approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. were down 6.9% in the week ending June 25, which is the first decline in three weeks and the biggest drop since mid-February. The index also fell to the lowest level since January of 2020, as applications to refinance a home loan fell 8.2% and those to buy a home declined 4.8%.
The 8:45 central time June Chicago PMI is estimated to be 71 and the 9:00 May pending home sales report is predicted to be down 0.8%.
There is a triple top in the September Russell 2000 futures at 2346.70 – 2346.90.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The annual inflation rate in the euro area eased to 1.9% in June of 2021 from a 2-1/2-year high of 2.0% in May, which is in line with market estimates.
The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in Germany fell 38,000 to 2.691 million in June 2021, following a revised 19,000 drop in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 20,000 decline.
The U.K. gross domestic product shrank by 1.6 % on the quarter in January to March 2021, which is revised from the first estimate of a 1.5% decline and ending a two-quarter period of growth.
The Canadian economy contracted 0.3% month-over-month in April of 2021, which ends 11 consecutive monthly increases, but was less than forecasts of a 0.8% drop.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Federal Reserve speakers today are Raphael Bostic at 7:00 and Thomas Barkin at 12:00.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened recently with shorter-dated yields increasing, while longer-dated yields are declining.
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